Since Trump took office, Democrats have faired very well in special elections across the country. Even though a special election in Arizona went to the Republican candidate this week, the stats from the race still paint a favorable forecast for Democrats ahead of the 2018 midterms.
Part of there reason for Democrats’ good fortune stems from the unusually large number of Republicans forgoing reelection. Bob Corker—the senator from Tennessee and outspoken critic of Trump—is among those fleeing the GOP’s sinking ship. Corker even went out of his way to say pleasant things about the Democratic candidate running for his seat, former Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen.
Perhaps this ambivalence about whether or not his own party wins his vacant seat is partly to blame for the Republican candidate—Representative Marsha Blackburn—trailing in the polls. Bredsesen is currently up three points. Keep in mind that Trump won 61 percent of the vote in Tennessee.
While still a long shot, Democrats’ chances of taking both chambers of congress appear to be slowly improving over time.